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Fundrise CEO Ben Miller anticipates an impending recession driven by Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. However, he also spots opportunities for strategic investors who take a long-term view and play defense. The key is analyzing macroeconomic trends shaping the market.
Miller points to historical data showing recessions consistently lag about 18 months after rates peak. We’re likely still before that peak point. Pandemic-era shifts like remote work are also impacting commercial real estate in particular.
Given these trends, Fundrise remains bullish on single-family rentals for relocated workers. They’ve invested heavily in “build-for-rent” Sunbelt housing. Warehouse space for expanding e-commerce is another long-term bet.
At the same time, higher rates strain real estate borrowers, opening short-term chances for private lenders. Fundrise’s Opportunistic Credit Fund returned 13% last quarter financing transitional “gap” loans. But Miller warns this window may close if rates improve.
Overall, Miller says Fundrise is focused on the long-game by minimizing recession risk. As Miller told the “Onward” podcast, “I’m much more focused on protecting the downside than trying to capture that [short-term] upside.” Strategic investments that play macro trends can pay off through volatile times.
