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Good analytical skills are not enough to be successful in sports betting. The secret of success also lies in proper bank management.
Bettor’s bankroll
Bankroll is the funds in the player’s account for making bets. It is important to understand that sports betting is not a way to get rich quickly, but a difficult and very exciting activity that, with the right approach, can bring good profits. Therefore, it is important to determine the size of the initial deposit. If the amount is small, then you should not count on a high income, since the size of the bet should not exceed 5% of the game bank.
This technique is perhaps the most popular among players. It is designed to protect bettors from losing their bankroll quickly in the event of a black streak, which is inevitable. However, with this approach, the real value of the bet is often ignored. Therefore, we will talk about some other strategies.
Сonsidering the odds
To be successful in sports betting, you need to constantly apply one or another strategy. At the same time, it should be understood that there simply does not exist a win-win strategy, otherwise there would be no bookmaker’s offices (you can find the rating of the best of them on Meta.reviews).
One of the most popular strategies is to consider the odds of the outcome when betting on an event. The size of the bet in this approach is calculated by the formula: (bankroll x 0.05) / (odds – 1). Accordingly, if the odds are high, the amount is small, and if low, the bet increases.
The main drawback is that if you bet on clear favorites, then in case of defeat, you will need several bets to win back. Moreover, in the event of several failures, there is a high probability of losing the entire deposit.
The Kelly criterion
In general, the essence of this basic strategy is that the player himself estimates the probability of a particular outcome, comparing it with the exposed odds.
In this approach, the bet is not fixed and depends on several factors like the amount of bankroll, the odds set and the estimated probability (the evaluation is done by analyzing the statistics of team performances, the form of players and other key factors).
With the traditional Kelly method, the bet is calculated using the following formula: your prediction on the probability of the outcome (in %) / (odds – 1)
The traditional method is not recommended to use at low odds, because in case of a failure you can lose most of your deposit. Therefore, some players prefer to use the fractional Kelly method. In this case, you have to bet 10% of the size of the bet calculated by the traditional Kelly criterion.
The formula for calculating the bet amount is (your bankroll x fixed percentage) x (your probability of an outcome (%) / (odds – 1))
For example, the bankroll is $100, the event odds are 1.80, and the calculated probability of winning is 70%: ($100 x 10%) x (70% / (1.8 – 1)) = $8.75. The bet amount is $8.75.
