Mathematics vs Thinking vs Gambling

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The Sumerians played with dice made of sheep’s bones. The Egyptians discovered the first examples of table games. Spanish marines are considered the father of nearly all of today’s card games. Gambling is an instinct for some scientists: Random outcomes are attracting us strangely. Some sociologists even think that this situation arises from the fact that human beings cannot accept fate. We want to believe that we shape our future, not gods, and for this reason, we gamble. The feeling that we can have a control over the outcome is attracting us. This is such a passion that even scientists have been influenced: Among the books written by Pascal and Fermat, mathematical calculations of gambling play an important role. Pascal is also known as the person who invented the roulette game too. The first book written by the famous Italian mathematician GirolamoCardano was based on the probability calculations of gambling. In short, playing games and trying to gain an advantage by calculating probabilities has been an ongoing passion throughout history. (You can visit Slotozilla for more information about the gambling history.)

Odds Are Not in Your Favor

So, is it really possible? Can we really gain the advantage in a game by calculating the probabilities, or even win it? The answer is neither yes nor no. Let’s start with the basics: All casino games are based on mathematical principles. This was not the case when they first appeared and there were some “flaws”. Over time, however, casino owners “fixed” the weaknesses of each and changed the rules. For example, when the roulette game first appeared, it was possible to predict where the ball will land, by paying attention to some physical flaws on the wheel. Charles De Ville Well bankrupted the Monte Carlo Casino in 1862 by using this flaw. The historic casino failed to pay any customers that night for the first time in history. After this “accident”, roulette wheels have started to be produced all over the world in the same standards. There are no faults anymore. Don Johnson (yes, that’s his real name) played blackjack in New Jersey casinos and earned $ 6 million overnight. Currently, he is not accepted in any casinos in the world and it became illegal to count cards in New Jersey. In other words, casino games today have no flaws: They are built on excellent mathematical principles and the possibilities are always in favor of the casino.

But that does not mean you cannot improve your chances of winning. There is no way to guarantee a winning, but you can still raise your chances with simple calculations, and most importantly, you can predict what your chances of winning will be. To do this, you first need to be aware of the probability calculations. Let’s start with a simple example: Thin that you entered a bet that paid 3 to 7. If you win, you will get 3 dollars back and you will also make a 7 dollars profit. If you lose, the casino will win $ 3. What is the probability of this bet happening? You can calculate this with a simple formula: 3 / (3 + 7) = 3/10 = 0.3. It’s pretty low, isn’t it? That’s why the casino offers to pay a lot. Even if you win once, the casino will win more in the long run. Let’s give a more concrete example. When playing poker, Royal Flush hand pays 2,500 to 1. What is the probability of this happening? 0.0000015%. Your chances of getting hit by a lightning are higher (1 / 13.500).

Understanding House Edge

Whatever game you play, all you have to do is calculate in advance the likelihood of the desired outcome. By doing this, you can see which types of bets are more advantageous, as well as how much of your investment will be returned in the long run. Unfortunately, for an ordinary player these calculations are quite difficult and complicated. However, it is possible to know in advance which games are “better” by paying attention to a simple rule. We can describe this rule as the “house edge”. House edge means the profit that the casino will earn from you in the long run. The casino wants it to be high, players want it to be low. Let’s give some examples:

So, for example, if you play Keno, you will lose $ 25 from every $ 100 you deposit. This figure also shows what the casino will earn from you: 25 dollars. If you play blackjack, you will only lose 4 cents for every 100 dollars you deposit. In other words, Blackjack is a more advantageous game. You can understand which game is better by paying attention to house edge rates. The next thing you need to do is to learn all the probability calculations for that game. Of course, without the misconception of gambler’s fallacy.

What Is Gambler’s Fallacy?

Gambler’s fallacy is a phenomenon seen even among the professional gamblers. To put it simply, it means having “faith” in the outcome. Let’s say you play roulette: The outcome was the red color for the last 20 rounds. For the 21st time, the chances of getting black have increased, right? You can place your money to black now, with increased chances of winning…Gambler’s fallacy is exactly this. In truth, the likelihood of getting red for the 21st time has never changed: It is still 47.85%. But psychologically, we tend to think of the opposite. This belief applies to all casino games. If you’ve lost too many times in a game, you believe that your luck will return for the next round. A slot machine will “warm up” and start paying soon. All of these are literally “beliefs” and they have no scientific foundation.